Changing Weather Patterns

It's undeniable that weather patterns are changing. Atmospheric river storms are getting stronger and deadlier while the race is on to understand them better. In the early 2000s, a new field of climate science research emerged to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts, and storms. Scientists widely agree that increases in the average global temperature are spurring widespread changes in weather patterns.

In early February, a storm raged over California for more than five days. As the mighty atmospheric river made landfall, furious winds and torrential downpours ripped trees from their roots, turned streets into rivers, and sent mud cascading into homes. The weather service's San Francisco Bay Area office issued a hurricaneforce wind warning, the first such warning ever.

And now, according to a report by scientists at the National Oceanography Centre in the UK, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a crucial system of ocean currents, may already be on course to collapse, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather - leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others.

But worse things happen at sea.

"What keeps me up is the [likelihood of bad] weather," owner of MY Infiniti liveaboard operating in the Philippines and Indonesia, Sukhijt Bassi, told Undercurrent.

"Patterns are changing, but people still want to dive in the same months," he said. "Tubbataha [a remote Philippine reef system] is one example ... Nobody wanted to dive it in June 3-4 years ago, which used to be rough, but now it appears to be the calmest time.

"March and April are now rough, but smaller wooden boats ply during April and not June. Protected coastal areas like Raja Ampat will be fine, but things out in the blue with short seasons will be an issue."

Of course, much of the Philippines are clusters of islands protected from stormy waters. From July to October, 70 percent of the typhoons occur, which can mean a lot of rain, even if the wind doesn't lift roofs.

For divers, it's the wind and waves that are significant. Reader reports show that this winter, Caribbean winds and weather have kept divers out of the water and in the bars more than in previous years.

Hurricane Season in the Caribbean and Monsoons in Asia

June to December, it's hurricane season in the Caribbean. That doesn't mean there will be a hurricane while you're there, but it's worth considering when making plans. For the best chances of year-round good weather in the Caribbean. Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao are outside the hurricane belt and receive relatively little rain even during their wet season from December through March. That's not to say change is not coming.

I remember well Michelle Cove telling me I should conduct my equipment tests for Diver Magazine in August in the Bahamas instead of the Red Sea. When I asked, "What about it being hurricane season?" she laughed and said it was a myth.

So, I went to the Bahamas but spent my time helping Stuart Cove and his crew get his boats safely out of the water before I became stranded in New Providence, unable to fly out and unable to dive because of the high winds. So much for the myth. Ironically, it was Hurricane Michelle.

If you were planning a trip in October or November, you might be better off heading to Hawaii.

Wind is the enemy of divers and boat operators alike. The closer you are to zero degrees of latitude, the less likely you will suffer high winds. You're in the Doldrums. Rain may come down in biblical proportions, but when it stops, which it does, the weather can be calm, so it doesn't really affect the diving.

The Red Sea, bordered on both sides by desert that heats up in the daytime and cools off at night, is subject to fierce winds (often Force 8) that are offshore during the day and onshore at night. So, most diving is conducted close to the shelter of the shore, and boats are moored on the lee side of reefs. In the past, August has been the month when the wind is in equilibrium and the sea is calm, but who knows now? The Saudi Arabian coast seems to enjoy onshore wind most of the time, meaning the sea immediately off its coast is more or less constantly choppy.

The rainy season in the Galapagos runs from February to April, but the sea state remains constant. It was once said the best diving months were December and January. It could be any time now.

"Monsoon"' is a local word for seasonal weather. It's dispiriting to see tourists trudging through rain puddles in the Maldives in the second half of the year during the wet monsoon when they were expecting an idyllic sun-drenched island holiday. Still, it's when ocean currents are mildest and might suit the underwater macro photographer. Go during the dry monsoon (October to April), especially during the first three months of the year, and the powerful ocean currents can bring highvoltage diving experiences that are not for the fainthearted diver. Liveaboards tend to stay in the western atolls at this time.

Wherever you go, whether shore-based or on a liveaboard, you don't want to be stuck waiting for the weather to break. But it's an ongoing risk, and if you're out to sea, you must make it to port regardless of how rough the weather or the journey.

So, what advice can Undercurrent give you? Do your research - you can learn a lot from recent Undercurrent reader reports. Get information from the dive operators at your proposed destination. Keep in mind the uncertainty of basing future trips on past weather patterns. Don't expect a liveaboard to set sail or stick to an itinerary if winds and waves are forbidding. And don't blame island dive staff if the boss says the weather is unfavorable and won't send out day boats. Be philosophical. Nobody can guarantee the weather - especially nowadays.

- John Bantin

P.S. See the Aggressor story on page 5.